1 September 2015: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has provided an update on the current situation and outlook of El Niño/La Niña, which notes that a “mature and strong El Niño” is now present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The update states that most climate outlook models suggest the 2015-16 El Niño is likely to further strengthen before the end of the year, and that surface water temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to surpass 2°C above average. During August, east-central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures ranged between 1.3° and 2.0°C above average, exceeding El Niño thresholds by around 1°C.

The update further concludes that: as of August 2015, both the ocean and atmosphere over the tropical Pacific exhibited behavior indicative of a strong El Niño; this peak strength, expected sometime during October 2015 to January 2016, could place it among the four strongest El Niño events since 1950; impacts are already evident in some regions and are expected to become even more apparent for at least the next four to eight months; and El Niño events usually decline and dissipate during the first and second quarters of the year following their formation.

The oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific will be closely monitored in the coming months to better assess the evolution of the El Niño’s strength. [WMO News Story] [El Niño/La Niña Update][WMO Media Center News]