1 December 2014: While some countries will be able to meet their climate change mitigation goals under current policy frameworks, others will need to update their policies, according to a panel of experts at an event held on the sidelines of the Lima Climate Change Conference. Climate Analytics GmbH and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) organized the event, ‘Climate Change Mitigation Policies: Recent Trends, Opportunities and Compatibility with 2°C Pathways.’

Marcia Rocha, Climate Analytics, introduced the Climate Action Tracker project, an independent, science-based assessment, which monitors countries’ emission commitments and actions. She focused on Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), assessment of current pledges and whether current activities are sufficient to meet these pledges.

Hanna Fekete, NewClimate Institute, compared the US and Chinese electricity sectors, noting China’s emission intensity is currently higher, with the Chinese sector also presenting a faster trend of decarbonization. She also described progress in the Republic of Korea, noting that despite its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), which will be launched in 2015, and clear emissions reductions, the country will not meet its pledge.

Fabio Sferra, Climate Analytics, said India could achieve their pledge despite a steep increase in emissions while Norway would not be able to meet their very ambitious pledge under its current policy. He further noted New Zealand’s emissions are expected to increase and policies additional to the ETS will be needed.

Michiel Schaeffer, Climate Analytics, stressed the need for meaningful quantification, highlighting: focus on mitigation; referencing at least to 2020-2025; clearly defining a base period; and specifying the sectors involved.

Michel den Elzen, PBL, said the PBL project aims to provide an overview of the projected greenhouse has (GHG) emissions of seven major emitting countries. He stressed the combination of a bottom-up and a top-down approach and presented results for the US and Brazil, using scenarios for current, planned and enhanced policies.

Hanna Fekete, NewClimate Institute, highlighted options for reducing emissions by 2030, including using enhanced policies such as car standards, replacement of coal-fired plants by renewable energy and energy efficiency in buildings and industry.

On long-term climate policy targets and implications for 2030, Andries Hof, PBL, stressed, inter alia: projected global GHG emissions for 2020 are around 10% above the 2010 level, which is considerably higher than the least-cost pathway to achieve the 2°C target; and delay to 2030 will increase the difficulty of achieving given targets.

Kentaro Tamura, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), focused on standard-setting for nuclear and coal-fired power plants in Japan, which she said is critical for finalizing mitigation targets.

During the discussion, participants addressed, inter alia: data trustworthiness; inclusion of specific sectors, like agriculture; sufficiency of the 2°C target; and required elements to be included in the new climate agreement.[IISD RS ENBOTS Coverage] [IISD RS Coverage of Lima Climate Change Conference] [NewClimate Institute Event Announcement] [PBL Website] [Climate Analytics Climate Action Tracker Webpage]