7 December 2015: In a briefing paper, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates that the impacts of climate change could reduce gross domestic product (GDP) in Southeast Asia by up to 11% by the year 2100 if no action is taken, and highlights the potential for countries to limit their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially by avoiding deforestation.

The ADB briefing paper, titled ‘Southeast Asia and the Economics of Global Climate Stabilization,’ was launched on the sidelines of the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) to the UNFCCC. The paper is based on a study that modeled various scenarios of emissions mitigation, focusing on the region’s five largest economies – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. These five countries produce 90% of regional GHG emissions.

According to the brief, the current trajectory of energy use in Southeast Asia depends on increased use of oil and coal. The authors recommend that the countries mitigate climate change through avoiding deforestation, which accounts for half of all emissions in the region. They also recommend stepping up energy efficiency measures and exploring advanced technologies, such as carbon capture and storage and the use of advanced biofuels. They stress that, although the initial costs of such actions will be high, the ensuing benefits will far outweigh these costs, resulting, for example, in better transport systems, air quality and agricultural yields. The authors note that ambitious mitigation actions will cost less than current spending on energy policies in the region, including current spending on fossil fuel subsidies. [ADB Press Release] [Briefing Paper Webpage]