The World Resources Institute (WRI) has published a report taking stock of countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement on climate change. The report finds countries’ progress on strengthening their NDCs is “incremental,” whereas urgent transformational change is needed to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

The Paris Agreement aims to: 1) hold the increase in the global average temperature to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C; 2) promote adaptation and resilience; and 3) make finance flows consistent with low-emissions, climate-resilient development. In their NDCs, countries present their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals as well as plans for adapting to climate change, sector-specific measures, and associated financial requirements. Since the first round of NDCs, around 80% have been updated.

The report titled, ‘The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022,’ provides a comprehensive assessment of “where we are now.”

By September 2022, countries have communicated 139 new or updated NDCs. The report finds that relative to the initial NDCs, new and updated contributions “aim to achieve deeper emissions reductions, tie more closely to planning and implementation processes, and document more thoroughly the finance required to support their implementation.” At the same time, however, it notes that progress is not happening “at a pace or scale consistent with achieving” the goals of the Paris Agreement.

According to the report, the latest NDCs “aim to reduce 2030 emissions by an estimated 5.5 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) more than the initial NDCs,” representing a 7% reduction from 2019 levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has indicated, however, that emissions must drop by at least 43% percent from 2019 levels “to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach.”

Other findings include:

• 77% of NDCs stipulate GHG reduction targets, and 96% include sector-specific mitigation targets and other measures.
• 86% of NDCs include an adaptation component, many with improved detail and sectoral coverage. The report states linking these to national adaptation plans (NAPs), among other instruments, is “a critical next step.”
• 53% of NDCs include estimates of climate finance requirements, together amounting to almost USD 4.3 trillion, of which USD 2.7 trillion is for mitigation and USD 1.1 trillion for adaptation. This reveals “the need for developed countries to deliver the climate finance they have promised.”

In conclusion, the report formulates several questions for further investigation. These address: the role NDCs should play in a country’s climate policy; how NDCs can help drive transformative action on adaptation and mitigation; factors driving enhanced ambition and increased implementation; reasons behind countries backtracking in the content and form of their NDC commitments; and the methodologies countries use to estimate climate finance requirements.

The assessment draws on WRI’s open-source Climate Watch platform, which brings together dozens of datasets and enables users to track national and global progress on climate change.

Published on 19 October 2022, the report aims to inform the Global Stocktake and the Glasgow work programmes on mitigation ambition and adaptation, as well as to shape future NDCs. [Publication: The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022] [Publication Landing Page]