The World Bank has released a scientific report, titled “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided.” The report, prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics, examines the implications of a four degree Celsius increase in global mean temperatures by the end of the century, and demonstrates the negative effects this will have on global development.
18 November 2012: The World Bank has released a scientific report, titled “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided,” that examines the implications of a four degree Celsius increase in global mean temperatures by the end of the century, and demonstrates the negative effects this will have on global development.
The report, which was prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics, highlights projected impacts, including annual heatwaves of between four and ten degrees Celsius above summer averages, a 150% increase in ocean acidity, one meter increases in sea level rise, severe changes to rainfall patterns and increases in extreme events. The report stresses that anticipated temperature increases are expected to significantly impact human and biological systems. In particular, the report notes that anticipated changes in water availability, ecosystems, agriculture and human health may lead to reduced food and water security, increased infrastructure damage and disruptions to livelihoods and economies. The report further states that impacts are projected to be uneven, with more severe impacts in the tropics and sub-tropics. Still, the report emphasizes that all regions will be impacted to some extent, either directly and indirectly, due to global economic impacts and risks of displacement.
Writing in the foreward that climate change risks will exacerbate global poverty, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim also speaks of its possibility “to roll back decades of sustainable development.” The report states that these impacts will hit the poor and vulnerable of the world the hardest, and threaten the overall sustainability of human systems.
The report has drawn attention in recent sustainable development negotiations at the United Nations. In a November 26 event in New York on a “New Generation of Development Goals,” several panelists cited the World Bank report as evidence for a scientific link between environmental sustainability and human well-being in generations to come. [Publication: Turn Down the Heat]