1 October 2014: The World Bank has published a policy research working paper, titled ‘Pathways toward Zero-carbon Electricity Required for Climate Stabilization,’ which calculates the carbon content of electricity in a set of existing prospective stabilization scenarios, and shows that near-zero carbon electricity: is required for staying within a global temperature rise range of 2-3°C; can be achieved even if some key technologies are not available; and should occur in every major country or region in the world.

The paper underscores the role of electricity generation in global warming given that it accounts for 26% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and because of its potential use as a substitute for carbon-intensive fossil fuels, including in electric vehicles, heat pumps, electric furnaces and industrial motors. The study examines 55 socio-economic and energy system pathways, generated with ten integrated assessment models (IAMs), which factor in parameters ranging from long-term demographic evolution to the availability of natural resources, and to countries’ participation in GHG emission reduction efforts.

More specifically, the study examines electricity carbon-content pathways: in technology-optimistic scenarios where bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) allow for electricity with negative emissions; and in which either both nuclear energy and CCS or renewable power are constrained but the carbon content of electricity decreases to near-zero levels.

The paper reports pathways at the global level and at the country level for China, India and the US, as well as at the regional level for the EU, with the aim of providing information for planners and policy-makers for the design of climate change mitigation strategies, including benchmarking of existing decarbonization targets and assessment of desirable implementation rates of electrification technologies (such as electric vehicles).

The study concludes that “the decrease to near-zero level can happen in every region of the world under a wide range of assumptions concerning technology availability, and is part of cost-effective strategies toward a range of different climate targets.” It argues that that, “since climate stabilization eventually requires near-zero carbon electricity, the relevant question for policymakers is not whether to electrify, but when to do it,” and notes that the pathways explored in the paper enable the investigation of this question. [World Bank Publication Webpage] [Publication: Pathways toward Zero-carbon Electricity Required for Climate Stabilization]