20 October 2014: According to a report by the US Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), reported solar photovoltaic (PV) system prices in the US fell by 12-15% in 2013, and are expected to decrease by 3-12% in 2014. The 2014 edition of ‘Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: Historical, Recent, and Near-term Projections’ examines historical, recent and projected PV pricing trends in the US, including progress in price reductions.
According to the report’s lead author, David Feldman, NREL, the decreases in prices are consistent with annual reductions since 2010 when the project first started. However, he noted, significant variations exist in reported pricing due to, inter alia, value-based pricing based on local competition within the marketplace, and prevailing electric retail rates.
The report includes: information on historical and recent reported prices; bottom-up modelled system prices of PV systems; a comparison between reported and bottom-up price estimates; and a projection on near-term price trends.
On historical prices, the report finds that, since 1998, reported PV prices have fallen by 6-8% per year, on average, whereas from 2012 to 2013, they fell by 12-15%. On current prices, it notes that global module prices in 2013 remained at historically low levels, and explains that system prices of both utility-scale and distributed systems are expected to continue to fall in the short term, reaching US$1.3-3.0/W by 2016. In the long term, according to the report, decrease in pricing is expected to continue in all PV markets.
The report aims to support the US Department of Energy and relevant US stakeholders in managing the transition into a market-driven PV industry. To this end, the Department of Energy established, in 2011, the ‘SunShot Initiative,’ which seeks to make solar energy cost-competitive with other electricity sources by 2020 by driving research, manufacturing and market solutions.
While uncertainty exists regarding the pace of price reductions over the next decade, Feldman said PV prices are expected to reach grid parity in the US without government subsidies by 2020, in line with the SunShot target. [NREL Press Release] [Publication: Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections – 2014 Edition] [SunShot Initiative]