11 January 2016: Quantifying uncertainty in national level projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can foster more robust climate change mitigation plans, according to a report released by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) DTU Partnership. The report, titled ‘Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenario Projections,’ presents approaches to calculating this uncertainty and explains the rationale for doing so.

The author emphasizes the importance of quantification to ensuring climate change plans, and the resultant public expenditure, are “robust to as many plausible future conditions as possible.” According to the author, the extent of uncertainty quantification in this area is currently limited to comparisons of projections obtained through different models, which are conducted by some Group of 20 (G20) members and “often tell only part of the story.” The report notes that, while these comparisons are useful, available complementary approaches are often underutilized.

Using practical applications of approaches in Mexico and South Africa that go beyond comparisons, the report suggests that the cost, effort and capacity building required to apply these approaches is a worthwhile investment, given the value derived from more accurately quantifying uncertainty around projections. The authors notes that Mexico’s results informed the analysis underlying its intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) submitted under the UNFCCC in 2015. [UNEP DTU Partnership Press Release] [Publication: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenario Projections: Experiences from Mexico and South Africa]