Meeting Turkey's energy demand growth through 2030 with clean energy would cost almost the same as meeting it with coal, according to a study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the European Climate Foundation (ECF) and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).
The white paper, titled ‘Turkey's Changing Power Markets,' examines the Turkish Government's energy strategy, compares it to expected energy demand growth and estimates the cost of meeting this demand under two technology options.
18 November 2014: Meeting Turkey’s energy demand growth through 2030 with clean energy would cost almost the same as meeting it with coal, according to a study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the European Climate Foundation (ECF) and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). The white paper, titled ‘Turkey’s Changing Power Markets,’ examines the Turkish Government’s energy strategy, compares it to expected energy demand growth and estimates the cost of meeting this demand under two different technology scenarios.
Commissioned by WWF Turkey and funded by ECF, the BNEF white paper explains that Turkey’s Government has outlined plans for a coal-based expansion of its electricity generation capacity to meet growing power demand and decrease natural gas import dependence. BNEF estimates these plans would translate into a 145% increase in coal-fired power generation and a 94% increase in sectoral greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 2013 and 2030.
The paper argues that the Government’s estimate on electricity demand growth through 2030 is likely to be too high, and places its growth estimate at 93%. It also presents two options for meeting the demand expected by BNEF’s estimates: a coal-led strategy that would result in an 86% increase in power sector emissions; and a “Renewables Development Pathway” that would concentrate on wind, solar and hydropower capacity expansions, and keep emissions “just above” current levels.
BNEF estimates that the costs of the two options, respectively, would be approximately US$400 billion and US$460 billion. In order to implement the renewables pathway, the paper argues that Turkey needs to: accelerate electricity market liberalization and privatization; and invest in energy efficiency measures and a more flexible grid.
The paper also points to additional benefits achievable from pursuing the renewables pathway, including: reduced natural gas import costs; the development of national wind and solar manufacturing industries; limited exposure to global coal prices; and reduced pollution and GHG emissions. [BNEF News Article] [BNEF Publication Webpage] [Publication: Turkey’s Changing Power Markets]