July 2011: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has published a discussion paper that assesses the global economic implications of the proposed documentation requirements on traded shipments of potentially genetically modified (GM) commodities under the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety.

The paper evaluates the trade diversion, price, and welfare effects of requiring all shipments to bear a list of specific GM events in the maize and soybean sectors. The authors find that even under conservative cost assumptions, the information requirements would have significant effect on the world market for both maize and soybeans. It is expected that non-member countries that export GM crops to countries that are Protocol members would divert their exports to other destinations. On a global level, both production of and trade in maize and soybeans would decline causing significant welfare effects, estimated up to US$ 1.036 billion annually for maize and US$ 716 million for soybeans. These costs are higher than the expected benefits for non-GM producers in countries that are Protocol members.

The authors therefore note that African and other affected countries should reconsider their support for this new regulation since it does not present any clear benefit for regulators but, if implemented, would be associated with significant costs for generations to come, in particular if countries may want to adopt potentially beneficial GM crops under development, such as drought resistant maize. IFPRI is supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). [IFPRI Press Release] [Publication: The Price and Trade Effects of Strict Information Requirements for Genetically Modified Commodities under the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety]