10 June 2014: The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects natural gas to recover from its global slump in 2013 to a “Golden Age” of 2.2 percent annual growth rate through 2019. IEA outlined these findings in the ‘Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2014,’ which analyzes global demand, supply and trade. The report attributes the underperformance of natural gas in 2013 relative to other fuels to a slow economy, supply constraints, competition from coal and renewables and reduced trade.

The projected 2.2 percent growth in natural gas represents a slight shift downwards from the 2.4 percent projected in IEA’s 2013 outlook. Nevertheless, the five-year outlook predicts China’s demand for fuel to double in the same time period, compensating for slower expected growth in other regions. A 40 percent rise in exports of liquified natural gas (LNG) from newly dominant private-sector suppliers in Australia, China and the US is expected to fill much of China’s demand, spurred in part by mounting concerns over air pollution.

IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven pointed to the more efficient natural gas markets as benefiting energy security, but cautioned that, without additional infrastructure investments, high natural liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices could lead some countries to meet their energy demand with coal instead.

In Europe, IEA finds that low power demand growth and strong renewable energy policies will keep natural gas demand below its 2010 peak, at least over the medium-term. In the Middle East, the report finds that policies for low energy prices will prevent the region from reaching its full production potential. [IEA Press Release] [Publication: Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2014]