8 December 2015: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production increased by 0.6%, reaching a total of 9.8 ±0.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2), representing a 60% increase over 1990 emissions levels, according to the ‘Global Carbon Budget.’ Despite this increase, the report published by the Global Carbon Project predicts that, in 2015, emissions will decline by -0.6% (range -1.6% to +0.5%).

The report further states that an additional 1.1 GtCO2 was emitted from land-use change, such as deforestation. From 2005-20014 emissions from land-use change averaged 0.9±0.5 GtCO2, representing 9% of all emissions from human activity. Cumulative emissions from 1870-2014 were 400±20 GtCo2 from fossil fuels and cement, and 145±50 GtCO2 from land-use change.

With regard to CO2 removals by natural sinks, the report finds that 27% and 37% of total anthropogenic emissions were removed respectively by the ocean and land carbon sinks, leaving 36% of total emissions in the atmosphere. The land sink removed 4.1±0.9 GtCO2, which is well above the 3.0 ±0.9 GtCO2 average of 2004-2014, making it the largest land sink recorded in 60 years.

Atmospheric CO2 grew by 3.0±0.2 GtCO2 in 2014, which was below the 2005-2014 average of 4.4±0.1 GtCO2. Atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased by 1.83±0.09 parts per million, reaching an annual average of 397.15±0.1 parts per million.

The analysis of emissions pathways in the report shows that current emissions continue to track the most carbon intensive scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); however this trajectory could change if emissions growth remains low or turns negative as predicted for 2015. While full implementation of the intended nationally-determined contributions (INDCs) submitted by Parties to the UNFCCC could avoid the worst impacts of climate change, many studies analyzed for the Global Carbon Budget suggest that larger emissions reductions will be needed to avoid a temperature increase up to 3°C.

The Global Carbon Project is co-sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other members of the Earth Systems Science Partnership (ESSP). The Project was established in 2001 to assist the international scientific community in the development of a complete assessment of the global carbon cycle in support of policy debate and action to slow the rate of increase of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. [Publication: Global Carbon Budget 2015] [Global Carbon Budget Highlights] [WMO Press Release]