22 October 2014: A study by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC) has identified areas in South America, Africa and Asia at climatological risk of desertification. The study, which used information from two indexes, found significant shifts in climate zones resulting from changes in the global hydrological cycle. As a result, arid areas have increased by 1.4-3.4% globally.

The study, titled ‘Towards identifying areas at climatological risk of desertification using the Koppen-Geiger classification and FAO aridity index,’ and published in the International Journal of Climatology, analyzes spatial changes in climate indicators over the past six decades using information from the Koppen-Geiger (KG) climate classification and the FAO aridity index (AI).

The report highlights significant shifts in climate zones at both global and continental scales over past decades, and more specifically, the report finds that: a continuous rise in global temperatures has led to changes in the global hydrological cycle; cold areas have decreased, while arid areas globally have increased, with the exception of the Americas; regional changes in the extent of drylands have prompted the emergence of new areas at risk of desertification; and arid areas have increased worldwide, and in particular in Europe, Africa and China.

The study identifies as hotspots, or areas at high desertification risk, Northeastern Brazil, Southern Sahel, Zambia and Botswana, Southern Spain, Northeastern China, Central India and Southern Argentina. Furthermore, it discusses the widening of the tropical belt and shifts from: continental to temperate climate in Central Europe; and tundra to continental climate in Alaska, Canada and Northeastern Russia. [JRC Publication Webpage] [Publication: Towards identifying areas at climatological risk of desertification using the Koppen-Geiger classification and FAO aridity index]