August 2014: The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) has published a working paper, titled ‘Climate Change in Central and South America: Recent Trends, Future Projections, and Impacts on Regional Agriculture,’ which focuses on climate change impacts on key crops currently grown in each region.

The study, led by José Marengo, Senior Scientist at the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contributing author, examines the ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and downscales climate change scenarios to reproduce observed climates, and establish the reliability of future climate projections, particularly in relation to associated crops.

The working paper consists of seven main sections addressing: objectives of the study; observed trends in climate; Global Climate Model Evaluation from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5); high-resolution climate change projections for Central and South America; impacts of climate change in agriculture in Central and South America; and main results and key advances to be expected from the climate modelling community over the next few years.

Some of the key findings suggest that, with climate change impacting a number of key crops, temperature and rainfall patterns, and considering that South America will be a key food producing region in the future, one of the challenges is going to be “increasing food and bioenergy quality and production while maintaining environmental sustainability under climate change.” [Publication: Climate Change in Central and South America: Recent Trends, Future Projections, and Impacts on Regional Agriculture]