The 2023 edition of the Population Reference Bureau’s (PRB) World Population Data Sheet explores the role of population data in helping countries prepare for and adapt to climate change. It finds that “[b]y examining the association between population vulnerability and risk of exposure to climate shocks, decisionmakers can allocate resources to areas of greatest need and prepare essential systems to respond effectively to climate change.”

The report highlights that “population characteristics like age, gender, and socioeconomic status are among the factors that make some people more vulnerable to harmful impacts from climate change” and that by understanding these characteristics, countries can improve the resilience of their populations and adapt to climate change impacts, including increasing temperatures, more frequent floods, disruptions in food production, and damaged infrastructure.

Unique to this year’s edition are indicators that look at projected deaths per 100,000 due to temperature change (2040-2059 annual average), the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) due to disasters, percentage of urban population living in slum households, and percentage of population living with moderate and severe food insecurity.

The 2023 Data Sheet indicates there were 8.7 million IDPs due to disasters estimated at the end of 2022. This number was more than one million in Pakistan, 854,000 in Nigeria, and 283,000 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Globally, 69% of people living in low-income countries (LICs) are affected by moderate to severe food insecurity. In Sierra Leone, the share is 89%, 79% in Afghanistan, 74% in Benin, and 67% in Yemen. The mean projected change in annual death rates for every 100,000 people between 2040 and 2059 due to climate change impacts on daily temperature varies significantly by country, according to the report. It is 53 in Niger, 42 in Pakistan, 44 in Burkina Faso, and 19 in Australia.

Among the 2023 Data Sheet’s key findings is that today’s global population of over eight billion is projected to reach nearly 9.8 billion by 2050. Eastern Europe’s population is expected to decline 10% by 2050. Africa’s contribution to global population growth between now and 2050 to is estimated to be nearly 60%. Key country-specific findings include:

• By 2050, the Russian Federation’s current population of almost 147 million is expected to decrease to 133 million.
• The population of Niger is projected to grow from 27 million today to 67 million by 2050, representing a 146% increase.
• The DRC’s population could more than double by 2050, from its current size of over 102 million to 217+ million.
• China’s current population of 1.4 billion is projected to decline to 1.3 billion by 2050. China was the most populous nation in the world until 2023 when India’s population surpassed that of mainland China.

On population age structure, the report shows that 10% of the world’s population is 65 and older, while 25% are under age 15. The world’s youngest region is Sub-Saharan Africa where 40% of the population is younger than 15. Western Europe and Southern Europe are the oldest regions in the world: 21% of the population in each is 65 and older.

The Data Sheet reveals that the global total fertility rate is 2.2 – one percentage point lower than in 2022, with significant regional variations. For example, in Middle Africa, this rate is 5.6, while in East Asia it is only 1.1. Country-specific total fertility rate sits at 6.7 in Niger, 3.7 in Yemen, 3.4 in Kenya, 3.0 in Timor-Leste, 2.2 in Venezuela, 2.0 in India, 1.7 in the US, 1.5 in Germany, and 1.3 in Japan.

PRB (Population Reference Bureau) – a non-profit organization that tracks population indicators for more than 200 countries and territories – releases the World Population Sheet annually. The 2023 edition was published on 18 December. [Publication: World Population Data Sheet 2023] [World Population Data Sheet 2023 Poster] [PRB Press Release] [SDG Knowledge Hub Stories About the World Data Population Sheet in 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, and 2017]