The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its annual energy analysis and projections, covering a broad range of trajectories, opportunities, and vulnerabilities. The World Energy Outlook 2025 presents three main scenarios, exploring the implications of different policy, investment, and technology choices for energy security, affordability, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. None of these scenarios being forecasts, they share a number of trends in common.

The report outlines:

• The Current Policies Scenario, which considers policies and regulations already in place;
• The Stated Policies Scenario, which considers a broader range of policies, including those declared but not yet adopted; and
• The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, which describes a pathway to reduce global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to net zero by 2050.

The report also includes the Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario (ACCESS), which provides a roadmap to achieve universal access to electricity and clean cooking.

One trend the three main scenarios share is the world’s growing demand for energy over the coming decades, including for mobility, heating, cooling, lighting and other household and industrial uses, and – increasingly – for data and artificial intelligence (AI) services. More and more, energy market dynamics are being shaped by a group of emerging economies, with India and Southeast Asia at the forefront, followed by countries in the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. “Collectively, they take up the baton from China,” the report notes, which was responsible for more than half of global oil and gas demand growth and 60% of electricity demand growth since 2010.

The report warns that “traditional risks to fuel supply [are] now accompanied by restrictions affecting supplies of critical minerals,” which are vital not only for power grids, batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs), but also for AI chips, jet engines, defense systems, and other strategic industries.

Although the pace varies across the scenarios, renewables grow faster than any other major energy source, led by solar photovoltaic (PV), according to the report. Mapping the new geography of demand onto the distribution of global energy resources, the report reveals that, by 2035, 80% of global energy consumption growth takes place in regions with high-quality solar irradiance.

Another common element in all the scenarios is “the revival of fortunes for nuclear energy.” The report shows rising investment in both traditional large-scale plants and small modular reactors. Following more than two decades of stagnation, global nuclear power capacity is projected to increase by at least a third by 2035.

The report confirms that the world is falling short on the goals for universal energy access and climate change. Around 730 million people still live without electricity, and nearly 2 billion lack access to clean cooking methods. The world surpasses 1.5°C of warming in any of the report’s scenarios, including those with very rapid emissions reductions. Underscoring the need for the energy sector to prepare for the security risks associated with higher temperatures, the report suggests it is still possible to avoid the worst climate outcomes by achieving net zero emissions by mid-century.

The World Energy Outlook 2025 was released on 12 November, during the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 30). [Publication: World Energy Outlook 2025] [Executive Summary] [Publication Landing Page] [IEA Press Release]