The World Food Programme (WFP) and the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) have published a report, in which they review the current evidence base regarding the impact of anticipatory action, and determine that more robust empirical data and a strong monitoring, evaluation, and learning agenda are needed to scale up the approach and ensure that it achieves intended results.
Titled, ‘The Evidence Base on Anticipatory Action,’ the report defines anticipatory action as a humanitarian disaster risk reduction (DRR) and preparedness practice by which support is delivered to vulnerable communities ahead of a forecast severe weather event or other shock. Programmes using the practice are increasing in quantity and scope, according to the report, and 30 partners committed to significantly increasing anticipatory action coverage at the September 2019 Climate Action Summit.
The report reviews existing evidence produced by anticipatory action partners, and concludes that while impacts are mainly positive, the evidence is often fragmented, incomplete in scope, and in need of methodological improvements. The report recommends that anticipatory action programme partners increase investments in monitoring, evaluation, and learning systems and develop a common analytical framework for anticipatory action programme assessment utilizing improved evaluation models.
The report finds that primary data on anticipatory action programme results are limited. It recommends that additional resources be devoted to establishing robust monitoring, evaluation, and learning systems to ensure that evidence of programme impact be produced at a high standard and can be used to improve the future design and delivery of anticipatory action.
Implementing agencies must agree on a common analytical framework to use in administering and assessing anticipatory action, according to the report. This will ensure coherence and methodological rigor of the future evidence base, and will be necessary in order to conduct cross-country, cross-hazard, and cross project comparisons.
The publication also emphasizes the importance of designing models which accurately and more transparently estimate the value of avoided losses. It recommends that evaluation methodologies extend beyond the calculations currently utilized, which employ return on investment and cost-benefit analysis, to also capture and emphasize the public goods and collective benefits associated with anticipatory action.
The report applauds current efforts by anticipatory action partners to improve monitoring, evaluation, and learning, including work towards developing best practice manuals and guidelines on monitoring and evaluation, as well as the establishment of a group to create a common analytical framework. [Publication: The Evidence Base on Anticipatory Action] [Report Key Messages]
By Gabriel Gordon-Harper, Thematic Expert on Climate Change and Sustainable Energy