The UN Environment Programme (UNEP), with the International Science Council (ISC), developed a report that recommends a forward-looking approach to anticipating, preparing for, and responding to emerging challenges and future disruptions. It identifies eight critical global shifts that are accelerating the triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, along with 18 accompanying signals of change the world must better prepare for.
The global foresight report on planetary health and human well-being themed, ‘Navigating New Horizons,’ mirrors the UN Secretary-General’s ‘Our Common Agenda’ report, which calls for UN agencies and Member States “to engage foresight practices more deeply and apply the derived insights to address global systemic risks.”
The major shifts identified in the report are: humanity’s degradation of the environment; scarcity of and competition for critical resources; artificial intelligence (AI), digital transformation, and technology; a new era of conflict; mass forced displacement; persistent and widening inequalities; misinformation, declining trust, and polarization; and polycentricity and diffusion of governance.
According to the report, these shifts go hand-in-hand with “signals of change,” which, identified by global experts through regional and stakeholder consultations that included youth, offer insights into potential disruptions, both positive and negative.
For example, the signals of change emanating from the relationship between humans and the environment include: the risk of thawing Arctic permafrost releasing ancient microbes hidden in it; new emerging zoonotic disease; antimicrobial resistance approaching critical levels; and unforeseen impacts of harmful chemicals and materials.
The signals of change associated with AI and digital transformation are the emerging mindset of continuous learning and ‘exnovation,’ and deployment of solar radiation modification.
The report argues that these signals of change reveal opportunities to advance progress towards the SDGs, particularly the environmental dimension. For example, actions around SDG 13 (climate action) “will necessarily resolve the signal of change of ancient microbes from thawing permafrost.” Restoring and maintaining ecosystems and biodiversity will also contribute to SDG 13, while mitigating zoonoses spillover. Addressing SDG 14 (life below the water) and SDG 15 (life on land) will safeguard ecosystem services, thus also facilitating poverty alleviation.
The report recommends adopting a new social contract that engages a diverse range of stakeholders, including Indigenous Peoples and youth, and extends measures of progress beyond GDP.
“As the impacts of multiple crises intensify, now is the time to get ahead of the curve and protect ourselves from emerging challenges,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen on the occasion of the report’s launch.
“Foresight provides a useful set of tools to step outside of short-termism to help identify future opportunities and risks,” said Peter Gluckman, President of the ISC. This, he argued, needs to be “done in a truly pluralistic manner, transcending narrow institutional mandates, sectors and other artificial divides that constrain our framing of the problems and the solutions.”
The report’s recommendations will contribute to UNEP’s strategic planning. Its outcomes will also feed into the Summit of the Future (SoF) in September by way of providing inputs to the preparatory discussions and events leading up to the SoF, including the UN High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF).
The report was launched on 15 July, in the margins of HLPF 2024. [Publication: Navigating New Horizons: A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing] [Executive Summary] [Key Messages] [Publication Landing Page] [Report in UNEP Document Repository] [UNEP Press Release] [Launch Video]