The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) has published a report providing a global assessment of transboundary climate risks in agricultural commodity flows. Its authors explain that the material risk posed to food security, particularly in low-income, import-dependent countries, is such that adaptation to transboundary climate risk becomes a matter of public policy.

Titled, ‘Climate Change, Trade, and Global Food Security,’ the September 2021 report describes transboundary climate risks to trade in major agricultural commodities – maize, rice, wheat, soy, sugar cane, and coffee.

The agricultural sector, the report notes, is among the most exposed to climate change both in the short and in the long term. While in some instances agricultural productivity may increase, it most cases warmer temperatures will reduce yields, with the risks assessed as “many times greater than the opportunities.” The report warns that while “largely unrecognized by the global community” until recently, transboundary climate risks to global food security are “critical and mounting.”

As an illustration, in the maize market, climate change could lead to a 45.5% reduction in US production. Such an outcome would likely drive maize prices up worldwide, adversely impacting US producers and the country’s economy. Consumers in Jamaica, Costa Rica, and Japan, who are highly dependent on US-grown maize, would also feel the negative impacts.

The authors caution about “increasingly tense geopolitical dynamics” as large agricultural producers strive to maintain their current market shares in the face of climate vulnerabilities. The report finds conventional approaches to managing trade risk, such as substitution and diversification, ineffective in the context of accelerating climate change impacts.

The report identifies the need for a cooperative multilateral approach to assess, manage, and reduce transboundary climate risks, flagging that responses based on national self-interest could “undermine global resilience and exacerbate the global adaptation challenge.” To achieve systemic resilience, the report recommends enhancing international cooperation on implementing equitable and effective adaptation. [Publication: Climate Change, Trade, and Global Food Security: A Global Assessment of Transboundary Climate Risks in Agricultural Commodity Flows] [Publication Landing Page]