The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) organized a webinar at the midway point of the UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), where the Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB) team shared insights on progress in the talks achieved thus far, highlighted obstacles that have arisen, and outlined possible directions for the second week of the negotiations.

Welcoming participants, ENB team leader Jennifer Allan announced the launch of IISD’s updated guide to climate negotiations titled, ‘On Behalf of My Delegation: A Survival Guide for New and Lonely Climate Change Negotiators.’ She said the guide discusses negotiation tactics to help negotiators navigate the climate process effectively.

Summarizing progress achieved in week one of formal negotiations, Allan highlighted “one big win” achieved on day one – full operationalization of the loss and damage fund. She said a lot has been happening in other talks but no significant forward movement could be discerned, with the exception of several declarations made and signed by different groups of actors on the sidelines, ranging from climate and health to peace, recovery, and resilience, as well as multi-level partnerships, methane, and hydrogen.

Allan highlighted the first Global Stocktake (GST), which is expected to conclude at COP 28, as “precedent setting.” She said it is meant to look at what countries are doing in aggregate on mitigation and adaptation, as well as capacity building, financial and technical support, and response measures, to help pave the way for more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the next round of which is due in 2025.

Allan indicated that countries have only started on the political framing of the GST outcome by trying to agree on a common narrative of the past, including historical responsibility, as well as possible references to fossil fuels and renewable energy. She highlighted the China-US bilateral statement coming into the COP as an indication of major players’ priorities, and stressed the “huge amount” of work that remains to be done.

Allan outlined divergencies in approaches to the Work Programme on Just Transition Pathways. She said developed countries favor national-level “just transition” (singular) in the energy transition to support workforce in accessing green jobs. Developing countries, she said, favor a broader understanding of “just transitions” (plural) that includes other sectors and dimensions. She said there are currently 20 options for scope, which she expects will go to ministers.

Allan described the state of negotiations on adaptation, including the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), as “dire, dismal, [and] awful,” with no agreement reached on a single word. While there have been no substantive discussions on the GGA, she said we’re at the end of a two-year work programme, and “it has to go to the ministers.” Among sticking points, Allan identified lack of standard methodologies for assessing resilience, with some wanting a robust framework with targets and indicators comparable across countries and others favoring a qualitative, less comparative approach.

Allan warned that failure of GGA talks could jeopardize other negotiations, including the GST outcome. More broadly, she said failure to deliver on adaptation could lead to more loss and damage, hoping efforts could be radically ramped up.

On finance, Allan said there is a “huge push” for the negotiations on a new quantified goal, which are expected to be agreed next year, and welcomed negotiators’ efforts to “sensitize” ministers for early political engagement.

Among challenges facing the Standing Committee on Finance, she highlighted: addressing a doubling of adaptation finance from 2019 promised in Glasgow in the absence of a common baseline, with widely varying estimates; developed countries’ failure to deliver USD 100 billion in climate finance per year by 2020 and the resulting lack of trust; and the need to align financial flows with climate-resilient sustainable development, further complicated by developing countries’ high indebtedness levels and concerns about conditionalities imposed on climate finance.

In response to questions from the audience, Allan highlighted that, inter alia:

• A roadmap for hitting net zero, favored by least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing States (SIDS), is unlikely;
• Human rights language is political across the board;
• Changes to UNFCCC’s rules of procedure to address issues such as fossil fuels are problematic as rules of procedure were never agreed due to disagreements over voting;
• The extent to which declarations made in the margins of negotiations are followed up on varies widely; and
• COP hosts rotate regionally, with the next COP due to take place in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, flagging geopolitical tensions.

In conclusion, Allan indicated week two of the negotiations “will be hard” as there is no clarity on the way forward. She said ENB will “do their best” to ensure transparency.

The COP 28 Halfway Point Webinar was held on 7 December 2023. The UN Climate Change Conference is expected to conclude on 12 December. [SDG Knowledge Hub Sources] [ENB Coverage of COP 28]