The Presidencies of the 2023, 2024, and 2025 UN Climate Change Conferences have formed the COP Presidencies Troika and launched the ‘Roadmap to Mission 1.5°C,’ to “significantly enhance international cooperation and the international enabling environment to stimulate ambition in the next round of nationally determined contributions, with a view to enhancing action and implementation over this critical decade and keeping 1.5°C within reach.”

On 21 March 2024, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) COP 28 Presidency, the Azerbaijani COP 29 Presidency, and the Brazilian COP 30 Presidency sent out a letter to parties, stating the Troika’s aim of raising and reframing ambition for the next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to address “all pillars of climate action under the 1.5°C umbrella,” with strengthened targets and implementation frameworks.

According to the letter, signed by COP 28 President and UAE Special Envoy for Climate Change Sultan Al Jaber, COP 29 Incoming President and Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Mukhtar Babayev, and Brazil’s Minister of the Environment and Climate Change Marina Silva, the Troika will:

• Support parties’ nationally determined ambition and priorities through the implementation of the UAE Consensus;
• Catalyze the mobilization and provision of technical and financial resources to further stimulate ambition in NDCs; and
• Utilize existing mechanisms, processes, and stakeholders, within and outside the UN system, to channel means of implementation in support of greater ambition that contributes to sustainable development.

The letter informs of the Troika’s intention to formally call on the UN Secretary-General to create “a single coordinated, unified, and effective platform of UN support across agencies,” including through NDC incubation workshops and tools to align targets with 1.5°C and the UAE Consensus.

The COP Presidencies Troika will host a series of high-level political convenings to assess barriers to NDC development, including meetings during the Germany-hosted 15th Petersberg Climate Dialogue, the 60th sessions of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies (SBs), the 79th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA), and a special session at the opening of the 29th session of the Conference Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 29). These meetings will discuss the “quantity and quality of support needed” to ensure NDCs can deliver just climate transitions aligned with the 1.5°C goal. The Presidencies will also work with “key thematic and political platforms” such as the Group of 20 (G20), “to channel existing knowledge and resources towards ambitious NDC development.”

The letter articulates the COP Presidencies Troika’s belief that “ambition and implementation can come from all parts of the world” and calls for the early submission of high-ambition NDCs. “As three developing countries representing different geographic regions,” the COP 28, COP 29, and COP 30 Presidencies announce they will demonstrate their commitment by submitting 1.5°C-aligned NDCs by early 2025.

Annexed to the letter is the Roadmap to Mission 1.5°C, which outlines its vision, mandate and objectives, and scope of work.

Unveiling the Troika’s vision at the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, held from 21-22 March 2024, Al Jaber highlighted the next round of NDCs as “a critical tool for correcting course.” He said NDCs should: be economy-wide; cover all greenhouse gases (GHGs), including methane; “follow the science”; and ensure energy transition pathways that are “just, orderly, and responsible.”

Al Jaber called for “equally strong action on adaptation,” with National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) covering food systems, water security, nature, health, are peoples’ lives and livelihoods.

Emphasizing finance as the key enabler of climate progress, he said it “must be made more available, accessible, and affordable at every level” and stressed the need for “a climate finance architecture that unlocks the trillions needed for transformational green growth.” [Presidencies Troika Letter to Parties] [UAE Press Release]