The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has released its annual Emissions Gap Report, which finds that predicted 2030 emissions must be reduced by at least 28-42% compared to current policy scenarios, to reach the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C, respectively.

The report themed, ‘Broken Record: Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again),’ finds that the world is on track for a global average temperature rise of 2.5-2.9°C above pre-industrial levels unless countries deliver deeper cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions this decade.

Emissions Gap Report 2023 highlights recent emissions and temperature records, including 86 days recorded between January and October 2023 with temperatures over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and an increase in global GHG emissions of 1.2% from 2021 to 2022, reaching a new record of 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e).

We must… start setting other records: on cutting emissions, on green and just transitions and on climate finance.

— UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen

At the same time, there has been progress since the Paris Agreement was signed, the report notes. For example, at the time of the Paris Agreement’s adoption, GHG emissions in 2030 based on policies in place were projected to increase by 16%. Now the projected increase is 3%. Further, the global implementation gap for 2030 is estimated at around 1.5 GtCO2e for unconditional NDCs – half the estimate from last year, and 5 GtCO2e for conditional NDCs – 1 GtCO2e less than in 2022. The report underscores that the only way to keep the window open for limiting global warming to 1.5°C without major overshoot is to significantly ramp up implementation in this decade. Delaying GHG emissions reductions, it notes, will increase future reliance on carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere.

Emissions Gap Report 2023 warns that mitigation efforts in line with current policies will result in global warming of 3°C throughout this century. Implementation of unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would limit global temperature increase to 2.9°C, it notes, while additional achievement of conditional NDCs would lead to warming of 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The report stresses that in a scenario where all conditional NDCs and net-zero pledges are achieved, the 2°C temperature goal could be reached. However, it cautions, none of the Group of 20 (G20) countries’ emissions are decreasing at a pace consistent with their net-zero targets. Even in the most optimistic scenario considered in the report, the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C is only 14%.

The report emphasizes that all nations must accelerate economy-wide, low-carbon development transformations. It acknowledges that low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face economic and institutional challenges in low-carbon development transitions but highlights opportunities they could seize.

According to the report, the first Global Stocktake (GST) at the UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 28) will provide a framework for building new ambition and inform the next round of NDCs countries should submit in 2025 with targets for 2035.

The report was launched on 20 November 2023, ten days before the scheduled start of COP 28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Emissions Gap Report is one of three annual “gap reports.” The 2023 publication complements the findings of this year’s Adaptation Gap Report and Production Gap Report. [Publication: Emissions Gap Report 2023] [Executive Summary] [Key Messages] [Publication Landing Page] [UNEP Press Release] [UN News Story] [SDG Knowledge Hub Story on Emissions Gap Report 2022]