The ‘Production Gap 2021’ report finds that, as countries announce net-zero emission targets and increased climate ambitions under the Paris Agreement, they have not also planned for the rapid reduction in fossil fuel production that their targets require.

The “production gap” measures the difference between countries’ production plans and projections and the level of production that would be consistent with achieving the Paris Agreement goals of 2^o C or 1.5^o C. The report also estimates the production implied by countries’ climate pledges. The 2021 edition is based on data for 15 countries, which represent 75% of global production.

The 2021 report finds that governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5^o C, and around 45% more than the amount that would be consistent with limiting warming to 2^o C. The report indicates this gap is consistent with the size of the production gap that was identified in previous editions of the report. The report also explores government support and policies for fossil fuel production, fossil fuel production and policies in fifteen countries, and the role of transparency in addressing the production gap.

On government support and policies for fossil fuel production, the report highlights that state-owned coal, oil, and gas companies present an opportunity and a challenge to transition away from fossil fuel production, given that they control more than half of current global fossil fuel production. National Oil Companies account for 40% of total investments in oil and gas worldwide. The report highlights that a growing number of multilateral development banks and development finance institutions have adopted policies excluding future investments in fossil fuel production.

The report also highlights that transparency contributes to improved national decision making, including through greater coherence among policies. Transparency also contributes to strengthening international cooperation. A number of transparency initiatives have been undertaken, but the report indicates the information available from them is incomplete, inconsistent, and scattered across a variety of efforts. In addition, they do not include climate change issues related to fossil fuel production and they are largely voluntary, making them hard to use to align policies with climate change goals and to ensure the issue remains alive.

The report is produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), ODI, E3G, and UNEP. [Production Gap report website] [SDG Knowledge Hub sources]