Global average temperature rise is on a trajectory to cross the 1.5°C threshold in the next few years but it is still possible to bring it down. This is according to a new spotlight report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), which argues that to achieve this goal the world must get onto an overshoot, peak, and decline pathway as soon as possible while adapting to unavoidable impacts.

Titled, ‘Limiting Overshoot: Navigating Exceedance of 1.5°C and Pathways Towards Return,’ the report highlights the need for rapid, collective, and global action to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change. “The lower the peak warming reached, and the shorter the duration of exceedance, the lower the risks faced by people and ecosystems,” it notes. The report calls for strong political will and multilateralism, effective policies, inclusive governance, and finance to determine the trajectory of the pathway.

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In a video message on the launch of the report, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for making the overshoot as small and short as possible through “an overshoot of ambition,” manifested in accelerating the phaseout of fossil fuels, cutting methane pollution, and protecting land, forest, and oceans.

Interconnected and mutually reinforcing, mitigation and adaptation must advance together, while being responsive to emerging risks, according to the report. To ensure sustained reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the report makes a case for carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which it defines as “the process of removing carbon from the air and storing it through afforestation or other means.” Acknowledging risks and trade-offs associated with such technologies, the report treats these methods as supplemental to GHG emission reductions and suggests they be “carefully governed.”

The report highlights co-benefits of climate interventions, including improved air quality, better public health, lower energy costs, secure access to electricity, and less pressure on energy systems. It places equity and justice at the core of strategies to protect the vulnerable, foster a just transition, and secure a livable future for generations to come.

The report also warns that even if a return to or below 1.5°C is secured, irreversible losses and permanently changed conditions will still affect many nations and communities, raising questions around justice and political legitimacy. The report argues that new, inclusive governance arrangements will be necessary to address complex issues, such as small island developing States’ (SIDS) sovereignty and entitlements in cases where their territories are submerged.

The report was released on 2 September 2026. [Publication: Limiting Overshoot: Navigating Exceedance of 1.5°C and Pathways Towards Return] [Publication Landing Page] [Key Messages] [UNEP Press Release] [UN News Story]