Ahead of the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 30), the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) published its annual report that tracks the gap between the actual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and where they ought to be to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. The Emissions Gap Report 2025 finds that global warming projections over this century are 2.3-2.5°C, down from 2.6-2.8°C last year. Implementation of current policies only would translate to 2.8°C of warming, compared to 3.1°C last year.

The report is titled, ‘Off Target: Continued Collective Inaction Puts Global Temperature Goal at Risk.’ It highlights that while ambition and implementation continue to fall short of what is needed, every fraction of a degree matters.

The report recognizes that projections based on current policies have declined from just below 4°C at the time of adoption of the Paris Agreement, to just below 3°C today. Similarly, global warming projections based on the conditional and unconditional nationally determined contributions (NDCs) have dropped from 3-3.5°C to 2.3-2.5°C. “Although direct comparisons of the warming projections are challenged by changes in the methodological approach over the past 10 years,” the report acknowledges that “there has been a significant lowering of projected warming.”

In addition, the report highlights that:

• The proportion of global emissions covered by net-zero pledges by the middle of the century has increased from zero in 2015 to about 70% today.
• Climate governance frameworks, policies, and legislation have improved significantly.
• Low-carbon technology costs have plummeted.

It finds that today, the international community is far better positioned than a decade ago to accelerate critically urgent climate ambition and action.

The report draws on the 60 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) countries had announced or submitted to the NDC Registry by 30 September 2025. These cover 63% of global GHG emissions, highlighting the lack of progress in pledges.

Implementation is also lagging behind, with emissions growing 2.3% year-on-year, to 57.7 gigatons of CO2 equivalent in 2024, according to the report. It estimates that for 2°C pathways, emissions in 2030 would have to decrease 25% from 2019 levels, and 40% for 1.5°C pathways. Full implementation of all NDCs would cut projected global emissions in 2035 by approximately 15% relative to 2019 levels, with the US’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement changing these numbers. It warns that “the risks of irrevocable impacts and of triggering climate tipping points that would lead to abrupt and irreversible climate changes, increase with every increment of global warming.”

“While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “We still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop,” she underscored. Among “proven solutions,” she highlighted the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy and tackling methane emissions.

The report finds that limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100 is still “technically possible.” However, delays in deep emission cuts mean the world will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C temperature limit, even under 1.5°C pathways. The report examines a “rapid mitigation action from 2025” scenario, seeking to limit overshoot to about 0.3°C, with a 66% chance, returning to 1.5°C by 2100. This scenario suggests that 2030 emissions would have to drop 26% – and 2035 emissions 46% – compared to 2019 levels.

“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in his message on the report. “But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up,” he urged.

The report argues action and leadership by the Group of 20 (G20) will be pivotal in narrowing the emissions gap.

Launched on 4 November, the Emissions Gap Report 2025 serves as a contribution to the UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 30) later this month. Between 30 September and 4 November, 11 NDCs have been formally recorded in the NDC Registry. [Publication: Emissions Gap Report 2025] [Executive Summary] [Publication Landing Page] [UNEP Press Release] [UN News Story] [SDG Knowledge Hub Stories on 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010 Editions]