Ahead of the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 29), the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) published its annual report that tracks the gap between the actual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and where they ought to be to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. The report finds that while it remains “technically possible” to get on a 1.5°C pathway, countries need to promise – and deliver – “unprecedented cuts” to emissions by 2030.

According to the findings, for the world to get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. For 2°C, a decrease of 28% by 2030 is needed.

The 2024 Emissions Gap Report is themed, ‘No more hot air … please!’ It explores “a massive gap between rhetoric and reality” as countries draft new climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), due for submission in early 2025, ahead of UNFCCC COP 30.

The report shows that in 2023, global emissions set a new record of 57.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent(GtCO2e), which represents a 1.3% increase from 2022 levels. It underscores that a failure to increase ambition in the new round of NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on a trajectory towards a temperature rise well in excess of what is required by the Paris Agreement over the course of this century. The report finds that implementing current conditional NDCs would translate into 2.8°C of warming, whereas implementing only current policies would result in as much as 3.1°C of warming.

The report explains that to cut emissions in line with a 1.5°C pathway, sufficiently ambitious NDCs would urgently need to be backed by a whole-of-government approach as well as measures that maximize socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits. Enhanced international collaboration, reform of the global financial architecture, strong private sector action, and a sixfold increase in mitigation investment are also needed.

The report estimates the potential for cuts in 2030 at 31 GtCO2e, or around 52% of global GHG emissions in 2023 – and 41 GtCO2e in 2035. Among the options holding the most promise, the report identifies: increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy, which could deliver 27% of the total emission reduction potential in 2030 and 38% in 2035; and action on forests, which could deliver around 20% of the potential in both years. Other good options include efficiency measures, electrification, and fuel switching in the buildings, and transport and industry sectors. 

“Delivering on the mitigation potential would require immediate global mobilization on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict,” the report underscores. It urges the Group of 20 (G20), particularly its largest-emitting members, to demonstrate action and leadership.

The report advocates for NDCs that: are well-designed, specific, and transparent; include all gases listed in the Kyoto Protocol; cover all sectors; set specific targets in relation to a base year; and are explicit about conditional and unconditional elements. They must also detail how national plans that prioritize the SDGs are consistent with ambitious efforts to reduce emissions.

“Today’s Emissions Gap Report is clear… We’re out of time,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a video message on the report. “Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap” beginning at COP 29, he urged.

Acknowledging the chances of the world overshooting 1.5°C, UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said, “we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world.” “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot,” she stressed.

Currently in its 15th edition, this year’s Emissions Gap Report was launched on 24 October 2024. [Publication: Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!] [Executive Summary] [Key Messages] [Publication Landing Page] [UNEP Press Release] [UN News Story] [SDG Knowledge Hub Stories on 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010 Editions]