By Siri Grund

Art is generally designed to be enjoyed by all and can make big ideas more accessible and interpretable. It offers a tool to connect new audiences to sustainable development progress and challenges, such as climate change and biodiversity loss data. On the eve of the opening of the 16th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (UN Biodiversity Conference 2024, or CBD COP 16), this article looks back at art that was displayed during COP 15, in December 2022, for the inspiration and hope for the future that art can instill in its viewers.  

Thijs Biersteker, a Dutch artist, combined data on biodiversity loss and art into a medium that illustrated how current political decisions could impact biodiversity in the future. Displayed at the CBD COP 15 venue, his art titled, ‘Econario,’ brought a five-meter tall robotic plant made from recycled steel into the Montreal conference hall. Based on a command input by the viewer, the plant could grow or shrink in size and presence to illustrate how political decisions during COP 15 would impact biodiversity in the coming years.

Data developed through the Biological Intactness Index (BII) were used to determine if the plant would grow or shrink. It produced a percentage based on an estimation of the number of species and their abundance in a given area that would remain intact based on the status of negotiations. The BII was developed by the UK Natural History Museum using the PREDICT global database. This database consists of millions of data points in over 100 countries. The data points account for tens of thousands of plant, animal, and fungus species. Drawing on the data in the BII, five scenarios were created to estimate the future impact of the issues under negotiation at COP 15.  

Although additional scenarios could be added for Econario, the five scenarios demonstrated how this robotic plant could represent the data. The scenarios, called Shared Socio-Economic Pathway Scenarios (SSPs), were based on how political decisions made during the COP would affect biodiversity in 2050. The data could also be represented in a graph that charts the different scenarios for the years 1980-2050. The first three scenarios illustrated the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario, and the middle-ground scenario.

The first scenario, ‘SSP1: Sustainability (taking the green road),’ represented a situation in which negotiators demonstrated a commitment to achieving the SDGs and prioritized human health over economic development. Development that takes place under this scenario is pursued through an inclusive manner and respects perceived environmental boundaries. Using the estimated data for SSP1 in the Netherlands, the BII is higher than any other scenario – around 71%.

The second scenario, ‘SSP2: Middle of the Road,’ estimated the situation where the negotiated outcomes would perpetuate social, economic, and technological trends according to their historic pathways. In this case, income inequality persists as does vulnerability to social and environmental issues. Slow progress is made to achieve the SDGs and, although energy use decreases, environmental systems become degraded. The middle-range scenario has a BII of approximately 62%.

The third scenario, ‘SSP3: Regional Rivalry (a rocky road),’ has the worst BII outcome: just over 60%. In this scenario, nationalism, security, and conflict cause countries to focus on local issues. National security is at the forefront, inequalities are increased, and environmental protection is pushed aside.

The other two scenarios, ‘SSP4: Inequality (a road divided)’ and ‘SSP5: Fossil-fueled Development (taking the highway),’ illustrate BII estimations in-between the first three scenarios. Across different countries, these five scenarios represent possible outcomes from actions today.

Econario was accompanied by interactive screens that provided information on the scenario the plant was representing and allowed viewers to dive deeper into the data presented by the Natural History Museum. In addition to seeing the fullness of Econario when its branches and leaves were fully extended, or its relative collapse when the branches and leaves pulled in, the viewer could learn that a BII of 90% represents a resilient and functioning ecosystem, while an ecosystem in danger of collapse has a BII of 30% or lower.

This presentation of scientific data through art allowed onlookers to experience information in a way that permitted them to form a personal connection with it. The opportunity to view what the data translate to in nature and to experience how it can change provided a powerful tool for learning how present decisions could affect the future. The negotiators at COP 16 would do well to stop and envision the BII that their decisions will contribute to before the final gavel falls in Cali.

This article was authored by Siri Grund, IISD Generation 2030 intern. She is majoring in environmental studies and health equity and health promotion at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.