9 November 2010: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released the 2010 edition of its flagship publication, the World Energy Outlook, which projects global energy production and consumption out to 2035 based on three scenarios: current policies; policies promised since the agreement of the Copenhagen Accord; and the IEA’s best case, 450ppm scenario.

Speaking at the launch, Nobuo Tanaka, IEA Executive Director, underscored that “the energy world is facing unprecedented uncertainty.” The World Energy Outlook reflects this statement in its treatment of the three different policy scenarios, each representing a possible reality. Regarding climate change, the Outlook notes that even recent promises made to reduce carbon dioxide emissions (its “new policies” scenario) are “collectively inadequate to meet the Copenhagen Accord’s overall goal of holding the global temperature increase to below 2°C… resulting in a likely temperature rise of more than 3.5°C in the long term.” It notes that the single most effective action governments can take to realize immediate reductions in fossil energy consumption is the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, which totaled US$312 billion in 2009.

On renewables, the Outlook notes that they are more capital intensive than fossil fuels and government investments will rise even as their ability to compete with traditional sources of energy rises. In particular, biofuels production is expected to continue to increase primarily due to government support, but also due to expected increases in oil prices.

The Outlook notes that China’s movement on energy consumption and production will be a major determinant of global energy trends. It also states that unconventional oil will play an increasing role in the global oil supply independent of government policy to curb their demand, although the Outlook states that the Caspian region can alleviate pressure to extract unconventional oil by stepping up its role as a global energy producing region. [WEO Website] [Climate Change Policy & Practice Story on the WEO 2010 Chapter on Energy Poverty]