3 July 2018: Limiting the global average temperature rise to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels (the lower level of what was agreed under the Paris Agreement on climate change) could save many lives in Europe by avoiding heat stress, according to research published by the University of Bristol. The study’s release coincides with ongoing heatwaves in much of Europe, where citizens are being warned to take extra care.

The paper titled, ‘Extreme Heat-related Mortality Avoided under Paris Agreement Goals,’ published in the journal Nature Climate Change, finds that higher temperatures not only lead to more heat waves, but also affect human health by causing heat strokes, cramps and even death. Commenting on the paper, the study’s lead author, Dann Mitchell, urged increasing understanding of the magnitude of these health impacts, so that suitable adaptation strategies to prevent them can be planned.

The study shows that mortality due to high temperatures could decrease by 15-22% per summer in London, UK, and Paris, France, if the global average temperature increase is stabilized at 1.5°C, as opposed to 2°C. The report shows that, in London, under potential future climate change, every summer will result in heat-related deaths.

Researchers from the University of Bristol simulated future climate change consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C goals reflected in the Paris Agreement. [Publication: Extreme Heat-related Mortality Avoided under Paris Agreement Goals] [UNFCCC Press Release]