The UN University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) has published a report that analyzes six interconnected risk tipping points and proposes a risk mitigation framework to help evaluate potential outcomes and trade-offs of risk mitigation solutions.

The six risk tipping points, selected for their representation of large global issues, are:

• Accelerating extinctions that trigger chain reaction leading to ecosystem collapse;
• Groundwater depletion that drains water risking food supply;
• Mountain glaciers melting;
• Space debris causing loss of multiple satellites;
• Unbearable heat making it hard to live in some areas; and
• Uninsurable future when rising risks make homes unaffordable.

The ‘Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2023’ defines a risk tipping point as “the moment at which a given socioecological system is no longer able to buffer risks and provide its expected functions, after which the risk of catastrophic impacts to these systems increases substantially.” “With these risk tipping points, it is as though we are approaching a cliff that we cannot see clearly ahead of us, and once we fall off the cliff, we can’t easily go back,” UNU-EHS Deputy Director Zita Sebesvari explained.

For example, some 70% of groundwater withdrawals are used for agriculture, putting pressure on aquifers, which supply drinking water to over 2 billion people. As a result, more than half of the world’s major aquifers are being depleted faster than they can be naturally replenished, putting food production systems at risk. According to the study, countries like Saudi Arabia have already surpassed the groundwater risk tipping point, and others, like India, are approaching it.

The report proposes “a new framework for solutions,” with solutions falling into two categories: avoid, targeting root causes and drivers of risk to avoid risk tipping points altogether; and adapt, to prepare for or better address risk tipping points’ negative impacts if they cannot be avoided. For the two solutions, the study recommends two types of actions: delay, by working within the existing “business as usual” (BAU) system to slow down the progression towards risk tipping points; and transform, through a “fundamental reimagining of a system into something stronger and more sustainable than before.”

As an illustration, an avoid-transform approach could be used to address the unbearable heat tipping point by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while installing air conditioners in hot climates is an example of an adapt-delay approach.

“We will need to develop solutions that bring together different sectors and address the drivers and root causes in a systemic way,” said Sebesvari.

The report was published on 25 October 2023, in advance of the UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 28) that will take place from 30 November to 12 December. [Publication: Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2023] [Interactive Online Report] [Executive Summary] [UNU-EHS Press Release] [UN News Story]