Misinformation and disinformation emerged as the top risk over the next two years, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2024, followed by extreme weather events and societal polarization. Over the ten-year horizon, perceived risks are dominated by environmental concerns.

The report derives from the results of an annual ‘Global Risks Perception Survey,’ which brings together insights on the evolving global risks landscape from 1,490 experts from academia, business, government, the international community, and civil society.

For the 2024 report, respondents were asked to: assess the severity of global risks over a one-, two-, and ten-year horizon (risk landscape); consider the range of potential impacts of a risk arising (consequences); reflect on which approaches have the most potential for driving action on global risk reduction and preparedness (risk governance); and predict the evolution of key aspects underpinning the global risks landscape (outlook).

The WEF’s ‘Executive Opinion Survey’ complements these data by identifying “risks that pose the most severe threat to each country over the next two years, as identified by over 11,000 business leaders in 113 economies.”

The 19th edition of the report titled, ‘The Global Risks Report 2024,’ highlights that over the course of 2023, vulnerable populations grappled with lethal conflicts, including those in the Sudan and in Israel and Gaza. Record-breaking heat, drought, wildfires, and flooding were also recorded. Increased polarization dominated news headlines.

The report contextualizes its analysis through four structural forces, reflecting four systemic elements of the global landscape:

• Trajectories relating to global warming and related consequences to Earth systems (climate change);
• Changes in the size, growth, and structure of populations around the world (demographic bifurcation);
• Developmental pathways for frontier technologies (technological acceleration); and
• Material evolution in the concentration and sources of geopolitical power (geostrategic shifts).

According to the report, the top five imminent threats (those likely to be most severe in the next two years) are: 1) misinformation and disinformation; 2) extreme weather events; 3) societal polarization; 4) cyber insecurity; and 5) interstate armed conflict.

Over the course of the next ten years, the most severe threats, as identified in the report, are: 1) extreme weather events; 2) critical change to Earth systems; 3) biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse; 4) natural resource shortages; and 5) misinformation and disinformation.

According to the report, younger respondents tend to rank the risks of biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse and of critical change to Earth systems “far more highly over the two-year period compared to older age groups.”

The risk of misinformation and disinformation was notably absent from the top ten risks the 2023 edition of the report identified, both over the two- and ten-year timeframes.

Amid a deteriorating global outlook, the report highlights the following main messages:

• Environmental risks could hit the point of no return;
• As polarization grows and technological risks remain unchecked, ‘truth’ will come under pressure;
• Economic strains on low- and middle-income people – and countries – are set to grow;
• Simmering geopolitical tensions combined with technology will drive new security risks; and
• Ideological and geoeconomic divides will disrupt the future of governance.

Among opportunities for action to address global risks in a fragmented world, the report points to localized strategies leveraging investment and regulation, single breakthrough endeavors, as well as cross-border cooperation.

The report was published on 10 January, ahead of the WEF’s Annual Meeting 2024. [Publication: The Global Risks Report 2024] [Key Findings] [Publication Landing Page]