May 2016: The World Bank Group has published a working paper that quantifies the coastal protection provided by mangroves in 42 developing countries under the current climate scenario and a future climate change scenario with a one-meter sea-level rise and 10% intensification of storms. The findings show that, although sea-level rise and increased storm intensity would put infrastructure at risk, the greatest impact is the expected loss of mangroves.

Titled ‘Mangroves as Protection from Storm Surges in a Changing Climate,’ the study shows that mangroves substantially reduce the vulnerability of coasts from inundation and erosion, but at the same time are threatened by climate change. The benefits for coastal protection provided by mangroves are measured in terms of population and gross domestic product (GDP) at a reduced risk from inundation; and the loss of benefits under climate change is measured as the increased population and gross domestic product at risk.

The findings demonstrate that under the current climate scenario and mangrove coverage, 3.5 million people and roughly US$400 million in GDP are at risk. In the future scenario, the vulnerable population and GDP at risk would increase by 103% and 233% respectively. The publication reports that East Asia is at greatest risk, particularly Indonesia, the Philippines and Myanmar. [WAVES Press Release] [Publication: Mangroves as Protection from Storm Surges in a Changing Climate]