The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) hosted a conference to finalize plans for a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), which will aim to accelerate and consolidate research, as well as observing, modeling, verification and educational activities, as part of a broader Polar Predication Project.
16 July 2015: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) hosted a conference to finalize plans for a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), which will aim to accelerate and consolidate research, as well as observing, modeling, verification and educational activities, as part of a broader Polar Predication Project.
The YOPP Summit, which met from 13-15 July 2015, in Geneva, Switzerland, agreed on an international action plan to improve predictions of weather, climate and ice conditions in Polar regions to minimize the risks and maximize the opportunities associated with rapid changes in the Arctic and Antarctic environments.
Scientists, environmental experts, and representatives from the shipping and tourist sectors, weather and climate prediction centers, international bodies and funding agencies attended the Summit.
The meeting, inter alia: defined observation and research priorities; identified stakeholder needs and expectations; received commitments of financing, equipment, expertise and logistics; discussed data management and exchange; and determined how to coordinate planned activities. It also aimed to: provide an overview of YOPP planning to date; define observing periods; and agree on the YOPP data legacy. The Summit’s results will help finalize Version 2.0 of the YOPP Implementation Plan.
According to WMO, the Arctic is heating at approximately twice the global average rate. It underlines that polar regions are now opening up to economic, tourism and transportation activities, which is demanding increased observations and predictions. WMO also points to current lack of observations and scientific understanding in the region.
WMO President David Grimes said that advances in Polar prediction will lead to improved weather forecasts, climate predictions and better services for those who live and work in higher latitudes, as well as those living in lower-latitude regions.
Participants highlighted that: reliable weather and ice reporting services at daily, monthly and seasonal timescales are important for shipping; by 2050, shipping container traffic through the Arctic may be as big as global container traffic today; decadal predictions are necessary for ship design and fleet planning purposes; an increase in Arctic shipping may result in more oil spills, which Arctic States currently lack the capacity to deal with; toxic effects of Arctic oil spills may last longer because of fewer organisms to break the oil down due to geographical remoteness; and more accurate weather forecasts and predictions are also required in Antarctica to provide better logistical support for research activities and tourism.
The YOPP will take place from mid-2017 to mid-2019 (to cover an entire year in both the Arctic and Antarctic) and will involve the efforts of natural and social scientists, stakeholders, and representatives from international organizations, funding agencies and operational weather and climate prediction centers.
The Polar Prediction Project aims to bridge the gap between daily and monthly/seasonal time scales, and to improve hazards forecasting. It is driven by WMO’s World Weather Research Programme, and is hosted by the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Germany. [WMO Press Release, 9 July] [WMO Press Release, 16 July] [UN Press Release] [YOPP Summit Website] [Polar Prediction Project Website]