UNFCCC Releases Synthesis Report on INDC Aggregate Effect
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As mandated by the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC at its 20th session, the Secretariat has released a synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) submitted by Parties as of 1 October 2015.

The report underscores that while the INDCs could deliver sizable emissions reductions and slow emissions growth over the next 10 years, their implementation will not result in aggregate annual emissions consistent with least-cost 2°C scenarios levels.

UNFCCC30 October 2015: As mandated by the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC at its 20th session, the Secretariat has released a synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) submitted by Parties as of 1 October 2015. The report underscores that, while the INDCs could deliver sizable emissions reductions and slow emissions growth over the next 10 years, their implementation will not result in aggregate annual emissions consistent with least-cost 2°C scenarios levels.

At a press conference in Berlin, Germany, marking the release of the report, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres indicated that while the door for more INDCs is very much open, the report covers the contributions of 146 countries (147 Parties with the EU) received by 1 October 2015, including all industrialized countries and 75% of all Parties. She explained that these national climate action plans, contained in 119 INDCs, represent 86% of global emissions.

As highlighted by Figueres, the report finds, in aggregate, full implementation of the INDCs will lead to an 8% decline in per capita emission intensity by 2025 and 9% by 2030, compared to 1990. Emission levels would be at 55 (52 to 57) Gt CO2-eq in 2025 and 57 (53 to 59) Gt CO2-eq in 2030, according to the report. In addition, the synthesis estimates that the rate of growth in emissions over the 2010-2030 period will be one-third lower than in the 1990-2010 period, with implementation of the INDCs.

The report also reviews the adaptation components of the 100 INDCs that address adaptation, noting that the sectors of highest concern are water resources, agriculture, health, ecosystems and forestry. Many countries are creating and implementing strategies, national adaptation plans (NAP), and climate change laws to deal with immediate and future adaptation needs, according to the report. The report notes that the INDCs’ estimates of financial resources needed to adapt to climate change at a national level range from US$100 million to more than US$200 billion.

Figueres said that Parties meeting at COP 21 will need to address two questions: how to anchor the INDCs in the Paris agreement and what happens next? She explained that the latter question is important for reaching the 2°C target, as the agreement must facilitate a pathway for increasing commitments. [UNFCCC Press Release] [UNFCCC Announcement] [Synthesis Report Webpage] [Synthesis Report on the Aggregate Effect of the INDCs] [UN Press Release] [UNEP Press Release]


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