The scenario note indicates that although the current revised proposal by the Chair reflects parties' positions and their concerns, it does not resolve them, especially on the central issue of the second commitment period.
The text has been refined and streamlined but further progress is not possible without clarity on an overarching political decision.
18 November 2011: The UNFCCC Secretariat has published the scenario note (FCCC/KP/AWG/2011/6) on the fourth part of the 16th session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol, which will open on 29 November 2011, in Durban, South Africa.
Documents for the session include: the revised proposal by the Chair to facilitate negotiations; the report of the AWG-KP on the first and second parts of its 16th session; the synthesis report of the technical assessments of parties’ submissions on their forest management reference levels; and the annotated agenda.
The scenario note provides a snapshot of the negotiations: how far the AWG-KP has come and where it needs to end up in Durban. The note indicates that although the current revised proposal by the Chair reflects parties’ positions and their concerns it does not resolve them, especially on the central issue of the second commitment period. The text has been refined and streamlined but further progress is not possible without clarity on an overarching political decision. The Chair notes that the challenge for the AWG-KP will be to achieve a decisive outcome in Durban that completes its work. Parties have indicated that they expect the Group to conclude in Durban. Concluding the work means bringing together, in a draft decision form, a package of results on all five chapters of the text. the Chair further underlines the need for parties to resolve cross-cutting issues, including by addressing the broader context of how the AWG-KP will fit into a balanced and comprehensive Durban outcome under the Bali Road Map.
The scenario note also highlights major issues and concerns of parties on which efforts might best be focused in seeking common ground, including: finding consensus on the form and content of the second commitment period; clarifying Annex I commitments and level of ambition; ensuring continuity of the rules-based system; ensuring continuation of the market-based mechanisms; addressing concerns about environmental integrity; and addressing the implications of the decision by some Annex I parties that they will not take mitigation commitments under the Kyoto Protocol in a second commitment period.
The Chair suggests that the emphasis in the first week of Durban should be to assemble the elements of an AWG-KP package so that the zone of possible convergence can be seen by the end of the week. The Chair observes that, to a large extent, the major political decisions needed to conclude the AWG-KP appear to be interdependent with those of other negotiation bodies, the AWG-LCA in particular and a substantive outcome of the work of the AWG-KP can only be achieved as part of a comprehensive agreed outcome of the Durban conference. [Publication: AWG-KP 16 Scenario Note]