14 October 2014: A study on the impact of climate change on fish stocks by scientists from the UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) has identified ocean hotspots for fish extinction and a link between rising temperatures and fish movement. Using the climate change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the study finds that fish could move away from their present-day habitats at rates of 16-26 km per decade.

Using species distribution models (SDMs) to assess global patterns of change, the authors of the report, titled ‘Multi-model Ensemble Projections of Climate Change Effects on Global Marine Biodiversity,’ produced species-specific projections of distribution shift, calculating indices of shift across 802 commercially important marine fish and invertebrate species. The results of the study indicate an average shift towards the North and South poles across species at a rate of 15.5 km per decade in a low emissions scenario and 25.6 km per decade in a high emissions scenario. In the two emission scenarios, the Earth’s oceans warm by 1°C and 3°C, respectively. According to UNEP-WCMC, the results are consistent with changes over recent decades.

The study’s distribution shift predictions also suggested there will be “hotspots of local invasion intensity in high latitude regions” and that local extinctions would be concentrated near the equator. According to the lead author of the study, Miranda Jones, Programme Officer at UNEP-WCMC, the movement of fish to cooler waters generates new opportunities for Arctic fisheries, but could disrupt current species and increase resource competition, especially for countries closer to the equator.

The UNEP-WCMC is the specialist biodiversity assessment arm of UNEP, based in Cambridge, UK. The study was published in the ‘ICES Journal of Marine Science.’ [UNEP-WCMC Press Release] [Publication: Multi-model Ensemble Projections of Climate Change Effects on Global Marine Biodiversity]