29 July 2015: “Population growth in the poorest countries will make it harder for those governments to eradicate poverty and inequality, combat hunger and malnutrition, expand education enrollment and health services, improve the provision of basic services and implement other elements of a sustainable development agenda to ensure that no one is left behind,” cautions the World Population Prospects (WPP): 2015 Revision. The report, which is the 24th edition of the UN’s official population estimates and projections, projects that the world population will reach 8.5 billion by 2030, reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and exceed 11 billion in 2100.

Understanding these demographic changes is “key to the design and implementation of the new development agenda,” stressed Wu Hongbo, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.The Director of the UN’s Population Division, John Wilmoth, underscored the challenges population growth in poor countries poses to “the success of the new sustainable development agenda.”

The report finds that most of the projected population increase is expected in “a short-list of high-fertility countries, mainly in Africa or countries with already large populations.” The populations of 28 African countries are projected to more than double by 2050, with ten African countries increasing by at least a factor of five by 2100 and Africa accounting for more than half of the population growth by 2050.

Half of the world’s population growth between 2015 and 2050 is expected to take place in nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Tanzania, the US, Indonesia and Uganda. The populations of six countries are expected to exceed 300 million by 2050: China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the US. India is predicted to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in the next seven years. Population growth also remains high in the world’s 48 least developed countries (LDCs), with 33 of them likely to triple their populations between 2015 and 2100.

In contrast to Africa, the report predicts that most regions will experience a significant aging of the population over the next several decades. In Europe, 34% of the population is expected to be over 60 years old by 2050. In Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia, more than 25% of the population is expected to be over 60 by 2050.

Life expectancy at birth increased in the LDCs, from 56 years in 2000-2005 to 62 years in 2010-2015. By 2045-2050, gains in life expectancy at birth are predicted to slow. Although the world did not achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of reducing the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds, the rate has decreased by over 20% in 156 countries.

The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) produces the report. It presents key demographic indicators for each region and country, development group and income group for periods within 1950-2100. [UN Press Release] [Publication: 2015 Revision of World Population Prospects] [WPP Key Findings]