17 September 2014: An accelerated shift to clean public transport could save over US$100 trillion during the next 35 years, according to a study supported by the Partnership on Sustainable Transport (SLoCaT). The scenario study demonstrates how a shift in investment away from cars and towards public transport can reduce carbon dioxide emissions and result in savings in public and private capital, as well as in operating costs.

The report, titled ‘A Global High Shift Scenario: Impacts and Potential for More Public Transport, Walking, and Cycling with Lower Car Use,’ was launched at a UN Habitat III Preparatory Committee Meeting held from 17-18 September 2014, in New York, US. The study was produced by the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) and the University of California, Davis (UC Davis).

According to the authors, it constitutes the first study to examine the impacts of major changes in urban transport investments on urban passenger transport emissions and mobility of different income groups worldwide. It combines data from forecasts by the UN and the International Energy Agency (IEA) with research and estimates on the extent of urban passenger transport systems and mobility by non-motorized transport.

The study constructs and compares two future scenarios: a baseline scenario based on IEA’s ‘Energy Technology Perspectives 2012;’ and an alternative scenario characterized by far greater urban passenger travel by clean public transport (rail and clean bus transport) and non-motorized modes, and less construction of infrastructure encouraging car ownership.

The study finds that, between now and 2050, a realization of the alternative scenario could save over US$100 trillion in the projected costs of vehicles, fuel, infrastructure and operations. The scenario would also avoid approximately 1.7 gigatons of carbon dioxide each year, equal to a 40% reduction in urban passenger transport emissions by 2050. In addition, the scenario would result in increased access to jobs, affordable housing, and health and education, in particular for lower income groups.

SLoCaT was established in 2009 and is a Type II Partnership. This multi-stakeholder partnership of over 80 organizations is hosted by DESA. [SLoCaT Press Release] [Publication: A Global High Shift Scenario: Impacts and Potential for More Public Transport, Walking, and Cycling with Lower Car Use] [A Global High Shift Scenario – Summary Findings] [Report Infographic Summary] [Habitat Preparatory Process Website]