25 April 2013: UNEP Risø Centre, the Danish Energy Agency (DEA) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have released a report titled ‘National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Baseline Scenarios: Learning from Experiences of Developing Countries.’

The report intends to increase transparency and contribute to the understanding of pledges presented by UNFCCC parties with the ultimate objective of assessing the prospects for reaching the global goal of limiting global warming to 2ºC. It highlights that understanding likely future trends in GHG emissions is key both from the domestic policy-making perspective, as well as for informing countries’ positions in international negotiations.

The report notes that many countries presented targets in the context of the UNFCCC and have developed scenarios describing possible future trends in emissions. These scenarios are generally based on a baseline or business-as-usual scenario, which characterizes future emissions with basis on the assumption that no new climate change policies are implemented.

The report, which contains contributions from ten developing countries’ experts, features chapters on: model choice for baseline scenarios; assumptions and sensitivity analyses; data management; transparency and inclusiveness in developing baseline scenarios; and reflection on key aspects of developing a baseline scenario. The report is an output of a joint initiative by the three institutions that convened experts from Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Viet Nam to share practices on setting national GHG emissions baseline scenarios. [UNEP Press Release] [Publication: Report on National GHG Emissions Baseline Scenarios]