12 September 2017: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 SDG Collaborators have published an analysis on past trends and progress towards the health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The study finds that “substantially faster progress” than what most countries have previously achieved is needed to achieve several health-related SDGs.
The study titled, ‘Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016’, measures 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries. Based on these past trends, the study then projects indicators to 2030.
The study predicts that less than five percent of countries will achieve 11 of the health-related SDG targets.
The study predicts that the median number of health-related SDG targets that will be achieved in 2030 is 5 out of 24 targets that are currently measured. The study further predicts that target attainment will vary by SDG indicator, with more than 60 percent of countries projected to achieve targets on under five mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio and malaria. Other SDG indicators likely to be achieved include skilled birth attendance (48 percent of countries), household air pollution (40 percent) and well-certified death registration (35 percent). In contrast, the study predicts that less than five percent of countries will achieve 11 indicator targets, including targets on tuberculosis, childhood overweight and road injury mortality. Central and western sub-Saharan Africa are projected to attain few, if any, of the defined targets by 2030.
Country performance for the health-related SDG index varied in 2016, underscoring health inequalities across and within countries. Singapore ranks the highest on the study’s health-related SDG index, followed by Iceland and Sweden. Afghanistan, the Central African Republic and Somalia rank the lowest on the index. Angola, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Swaziland and Timor-Leste are predicted to experience the largest improvements by 2030, based on past trends. The study also highlights improvements in the universal health care (UHC) index by Cambodia, China, Equatorial Guinea, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR), Rwanda and Turkey. The study explains that the measure of UHC represents a basis for monitoring the expansion of health services to support SDG achievement.
The study also compared country scores on the UHC index with a socio-demographic index (SDI), which illustrates that higher-SDI countries perform better on indicators on maternal mortality ratio, child stunting and wasting, environmental risks and malaria than lower-SDI countries. Country performance was more heterogeneous across SDI levels for indicators on childhood overweight, smoking, harmful alcohol use, suicide mortality and interpersonal violence mortality. Vaccine coverage was high for most countries, with the exception of the countries with the lowest SDI.
On financing, the study finds a positive correlation between total health expenditure and performance on the health-related SDG index but notes variation exists at the same level of expenditure. For example, countries ranked 30 to 70 on the health-related SDG index had similar levels of performance but at least a seven times difference in spending. The study recommends focusing sustained international support and increased domestic financing on those countries the furthest behind.
The study was published in the journal, ‘The Lancet.’ More than 2,500 collaborators from over 135 countries and territories contributed to the study. [Publication: Measuring Progress and Projecting Attainment on the Basis of Past Trends of the Health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 Countries]