29 October 2012: Oxfam International has published a discussion paper on the post-2015 development agenda, examining lessons learned from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and their impact on aid and government decision-making. The paper argues that leverage over national governments is replacing aid leverage, and highlights how international instruments can promote such traction.

The paper, titled “How Can a Post-2015 Agreement Drive Real Change?”, argues that the post-2015 arrangement should recognize changes in the geopolitical, economic and intellectual context since creation of the MDGs. Such changes include the decreasing importance of the aid system, and increasing emphasis on national contexts. The paper, therefore, calls for a deeper exploration of the economic and political context for the post-2015 framework.

The authors question the extent to which MDG progress can be attributed to the MDGs themselves, rather than to national policies, economic growth or technological innovation. Highlighting “scant evidence” that MDG 8, on a global partnership for development, has impacted the behavior and policies of rich countries, the authors call for understanding this failure given the likelihood that post-2015 proposals will place additional obligations on rich countries, such as on climate change and resource consumption. They stress that understanding the MDGs’ traction has remained unanswered, but is not unanswerable.

While noting that domestic policies will be the main drivers of change, the authors suggest six global and regional instruments for action in a post-2015 regime: big global norms; global goals and targets; regional goals and targets; global league tables, such as the UN Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI); data transparency; and international law. They describe the strengths and weaknesses of these instruments in relation to national norms and decision-making, and consider their potential for being embraced by civil society.

The authors intend the discussion paper as a draft, and welcome comments and suggestions at: esearch@oxfam.org.uk. [Publication: How Can a Post-2015 Agreement Drive Real Change?]