4 July 2016: The ‘OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025,’ published jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), forecasts relatively stable food prices over the coming decade amid slowing growth in the demand for food and continued improvements in productivity.

The report notes, however, that these trends alone are insufficient to eradicate hunger by 2030 as required by target 2.1 of Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2) to “end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.”

The report shows that the increase in demand for food is expected to slow over the next decade due to slowing population growth and a gradual saturation of consumption in emerging economies. The expected demand growth for major agricultural commodities such as cereals, meat, poultry, fish and biofuels, could likely be met by production increases if current rates of improvement in production efficiency are maintained. While these trends should result in relatively stable food prices between 2016 and 2025, the publication warns that market and policy uncertainties could lead to increased volatility and periods of higher food prices.

The report further projects that, under a business-as-usual scenario, the number of undernourished people in the world could decline by 150 million to 650 million in 2025, which would be insufficient to put the world on track to eradicate hunger by 2030. Furthermore, the decline in undernourishment is expected to be accompanied by continued increases in the consumption sugar and fats, which may lead to the rise of other forms of malnutrition and health related issues such as obesity and diabetes.

A special section of the publication investigates prospects and challenges for agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa. It finds that despite significant growth of the agricultural sector over the past decade, Sub-Saharan Africa remains the world’s most food insecure region. The section shows that achieving the objectives of the African Union’s Malabo Declaration, which strives to eradicate hunger in Africa by 2025 through doubling agricultural productivity and halving post-harvest losses, is affected by uncertainties regarding mega-trends, such as the rise of the middle class, urbanization, improved access to information and communication technologies as well as uncertainty in policies. The section concludes that stable policies and investment could improve the prospect of reducing undernourishment through agricultural growth in the region.

Published annually, the OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook features projections and related market analysis for major agricultural commodities over a ten-year horizon. The 2016-2025 edition includes: an overview section that provides updates with regard to consumption, production, trade and prices of food and livestock in 2015; a special section on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa; and a section providing commodity snapshots for cereals, oilseed and oilseed products, sugar, meat, dairy and dairy products, fish and seafood, biofuels, and cotton. Detailed commodity chapters including global projections, statistical annexes and a data visualization tool are available online. [FAO Press Release] [OECD Press Release] [Publication: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025] [Report Home Page and Data Visualization Tool] [Press Conference Webcast]