21 September 2015: Without increased effort, none of the 17 proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will be met, according to a report by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI). However, if countries emulate the performance of the top-performing countries “there is much to be hopeful about,” it says. The report recommends early action to raise national ambitions, plan implementation and strengthen the focus on equity.

Titled ‘Projecting Progress: Reaching the SDGs by 2030,’ the report shows where the world will be in 2030 if current trends continue. A scorecard on the SDGs uses one target per Goal to evaluate how near the target will be to completion in 2030. The targets are classified as: reform; revolution; and reversal.

The most positive projects are those on ending extreme poverty, halting deforestation and economic growth in least developed countries (LDCs). ODI’s analysis finds that the world is on course to progress more than halfway to each of these targets by 2030.

The report identifies nine targets where “revolution” is needed to meet the Goals: ending hunger; reducing maternal mortality; achieving secondary school completion; increasing access to sanitation; increasing access to energy (electricity); ending child marriage; reducing violent deaths; promoting industrialization in LDCs; and increasing domestic resource mobilization (DRM). Areas that will require reversal in their trajectories include combating climate change, protecting marine environments, reducing waste, limiting slum populations and reducing inequality.

Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to be the furthest behind, according to the report. It finds that the absolute number of people living in extreme poverty may rise as a result of population growth. Additional challenges in the region are highlighted in ODI’s projections on: completion of secondary education, which is expected to be 66% compared to 90% globally; maternal mortality; access to sanitation; and slum populations, with nearly all increases expected to occur in the region.

East Asia and the Pacific are expected to achieve progress on extreme poverty and maternal mortality, but to have the most unequal growth of all regions. Latin America is expected to continue its progress on pro-poor growth but has the highest projections for numbers of violent deaths. South Asia is predicted to make progress on extreme poverty but fall short on maternal mortality. Emerging and developed economies are likely to produce the biggest environmental impacts.

The report highlights four key points on the way forward. First, it calls for early action to raise country-level ambitions and plan implementation, including political momentum and buy-in. Second, the report underscores that countries have “very different starting positions,” and recommends appropriate country-level targets with flexible implementation plans. Third, the report stresses the importance of inclusivity as in achieving the SDGs, explaining that progress for those furthest behind must be faster than the mean and recommending targeting interventions. Finally, the report recommends learning from “countries that have shown that significant gains can be made against the odds” while adapting solutions to appropriate contexts. [Development Progress Press Release] [Publication: Projecting Progress: Reaching the SDGs by 2030] [Scorecard Infographic]