20 October 2016: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted outlines of: the Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (to be finalized in 2018); and the Methodology Report to refine the 2006 Guidelines on National GHG Inventories (to be finalized in 2019).

IPCC Vice-Chair Thelma Krug, who chaired the scientific steering committee for the scoping meeting that drafted the outline for the 1.5°C report said that agreement on the outline means the IPCC can begin work on a scientific assessment for policymakers of “what warming of 1.5°C would mean and how we could get there.” The refined guidelines of national GHG inventories will provide governments with updated knowledge on how to estimate their levels of GHG emissions and removals.

These outlines were approved following discussions during the 44th session of the IPCC (IPCC-44), which convened from 17-20 October 2016, in Bangkok, Thailand, and brought together over 300 participants from 109 countries.

In addition to decisions related to the two outlines, the IPCC also adopted decisions on: the IPCC Trust Fund Programme and Budget; admission of observers; Expert Meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability and Climate Stabilization Scenarios; the scoping process; the future of the Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA); a review of IPCC communications strategy; a review of the IPCC conflict of interest policy; a review of the IPCC Scholarship Programme; and a workshop on climate change and cities.

During the opening session of the meeting, Kaveh Zahedi, UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), underscored the need for integrated systems solutions to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change, and for realizing the Paris Agreement in order to keep warming below 2°C, while also addressing disaster impacts and vulnerabilities.

Elena Manaenkova, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), discussed the role of the WMO and the IPCC in supporting decision making on climate change, and advocated for significant involvement of WMO scientists and weather services from developing countries in the IPCC.

…Kigali outcome on the phase-out of hydrofluorocarbons and the International Civil Aviation Organization agreement on bunker fuels indicate that the trend toward significant action on climate change, which began in Paris, is “irreversible and quickening.”

Via video link, Jacqueline McGlade, UN Environment Programme (UNEP), said the Kigali outcome on the phase-out of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreement on bunker fuels indicate that the trend toward significant action on climate change, which began in Paris, is “irreversible and quickening.” She also emphasized UNEP’s role in communicating the IPCC’s messages to the public, and ensuring that efforts to combat climate change are backed by sound science.

Florin Vladu, UNFCCC, said the Special Report on 1.5°C would provide the main input to the 2018 facilitative dialogue, and welcomed discussions on how the IPCC can contribute to the global stocktake. IPCC Chair Lee emphasized the policy relevance of the Special Reports in helping countries realize the goals of the Paris Agreement. [IPCC Website, with Links to Outlines and IPCC-44 documents] [IPCC Press Release] [IISD RS Coverage of IPCC-44] [2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines] [Outline of the Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C]