Recent IEA energy statistics and a private sector outlook show that the global energy transition is increasingly driven by falling costs of renewable energy and storage technologies.
Examples from the United Arab Emirates and the UK show that solar power plants with energy storage can be economically viable without subsidies.
Improved Economics are also enabling the "resurrection" of a plan to produce solar energy in the northern Sahara for export to Europe.
26 September 2017: The falling cost of wind and solar energy sources and energy storage solutions is making renewable energy sources increasingly attractive for large-scale electricity projects. While economics increasingly drive the decision for renewable energy sources, their contribution to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), especially SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy) and SDG 13 (climate action), is nonetheless noteworthy.
New Statistics and Outlooks Confirm Acceleration of Global Energy Transition
Recent reports and statistics confirm that the global transition towards renewable energies is picking up speed. The report titled, ‘Key World Energy Statistics’ and released by the International Energy Association (IEA), for example, shows that world solar PV production alone has more than doubled from close to 90 TWh in 2012 to 183 TWh in 2015. Expectations are that this trend will continue to accelerate, as expressed in a recent report titled, ‘Energy Transition Outlook’ and published by DNV GL, a global quality assurance and risk management company. The Outlook forecasts that world primary energy supply is likely to peak before 2030 and then remain steady at slightly lower levels. Oil consumption is expected to peak between 2020 and 2028. Natural gas will become the most important energy source by 2034, before it will be increasingly replaced by renewable energy sources. The report concludes that renewable energy sources will supply half of the world’s energy demand in 2050, including 85% of global electricity supply. The expected transition will have substantial implications for all industries, which are discussed in the main body of the report. [IEA Press Release][IEA Key World Energy Statistics][DNV-GL Energy Transition Outlook][ClimateAction News Story]
Dubai Establishes New Record for Lowest Cost of Concentrated Solar Power with Storage
Dubai currently holds the record for the lowest cost of generating solar energy that is available around the clock. The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) recently awarded a 700 MW concentrated solar power (CSP) project with energy storage at a price of US$0.73 per kWh generated. The winning bid was submitted by a consortium including Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power and China’s Shanghai Electric. CSP systems concentrate solar heat using parabolic mirrors to heat up a liquid such as molten salt. The liquid is used to produce steam for a conventional electricity turbine. A part of the heated liquid can be stored for several hours, enabling the production of solar-based electricity around the clock. Such baseload solar power systems are becoming increasingly popular in countries with warm climates and long hours of sunshine such as Australia and California. The Dubai CSP plant is part of Dubai’s 2050 Plan aiming to increase the city’s share of renewable energy sources to 7% in 2025, 25% in 2030 and 75% in 2050. [ACWA Power Press Release][DEWA News Release][ClimateAction News Story]
Plans to Export Dessert Solar Power to Europe Revived
Dubai is unlikely to hold the record for long, however, as increasingly large-scale bids for CSP projects are being prepared in other regions. A series of bids could soon emerge from the resurrected plan to build solar power plants in the North African dessert to supply electricity to Europe. TuNur Energy, a joint venture of solar and energy companies in the UK, Malta and Tunisia filed a request with the Tunisian Ministry of Energy, Mines and Renewable Energy for a 4.5 GW CSP project. The electricity generated would be exported to Europe via a long-distance sea cable. The cost for the project’s first phase is expected to be in the range of US$0.10 per kWh, with future phases expected to benefit from scale effects and technology improvements. [ClimateAction News Story][TuNur Website]
First “Subsidy-free” Solar Power Plant with Battery Storage Commissioned in the UK
In areas with insufficient sunshine for CSP projects, photovoltaic (PV) power plants can be combined with battery storage to provide energy during the night. While the cost of PV panels has decreased rapidly in recent years, the relatively high cost of batteries made it difficult to date to realize solar power and storage projects without subsidies. This may no longer be the case as the UK has recently announced the commissioning of a first solar power plant with battery storage that does not rely on any kind of subsidy. The Clayhill Solar Farm combines 10 MW of solar generation capacity with 6 MW of battery storage, allowing it to supply electricity around the clock to 2,500 homes. Described as a “landmark” development by the Executive Chairman of solar developer Anesco, the commissioning comes shortly after the UK Government’s decision to withdraw subsidies for solar power. UK Minister for Climate Change and Industry Claire Perry stated that the UK Government expects more developers to install subsidy-free sites later in 2017. [UK Government Press Release][Anesco Press Release][ClimateAction News Story]