April 2010: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has released two discussion papers on: climate change impacts on the hydrology and irrigation of the Limpopo River Basin of Southern Africa; and the impact of changing precipitation patterns on crop production in Ethiopia.
The Limpopo River paper, titled “Climate change implications for water resources in the Limpopo River Basin,” uses the Water Simulation Module of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). Results suggest that the river basins are already subject to water stress, but that water management is expected to improve over the coming decades. Nevertheless, water supply is predicted to continue to be a problem as the expansion of irrigated areas is likely to be an adaptation strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa.
The Ethiopian paper, titled “Hydro-economic modeling of climate change impacts in Ethiopia,” uses existing multi-market sector models. It finds that the largest impact of climate change on Ethiopia’s economy will be due to the increased frequency of extreme events, causing severe losses to agricultural products. It recommends that Ethiopia invest in water control to expand irrigation and improve flood protection. IFPRI is a member of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). [Limpopo Water Resources Paper] [Ethiopian Climate Impacts Paper]