July 2013: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has released a study, titled ‘Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan,’ which finds that temperature anomalies strongly affect the risk of conflict.

The study examines local level weather in South and North Sudan between 1997 and 2009 and notes that, in the future, the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21-30% under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. It further highlights that extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. The study also explores the vulnerability of locations under a variety of biophysical characteristics and vulnerable populations.

The analysis points to the negative role of extreme temperature shocks in North and South Sudan, but due to limited data availability, it cannot describe the channels through which such shocks affect conflict. To partially cover this gap, IFPRI exploits the heterogeneity in the impact of weather variables and identify mitigating and exacerbating factors of the relationship between weather shocks and violence, including negative weather impacts on crop yields.

IFPRI is a member of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). [Publication: Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan]