The 2014 Medium-Term Coal Market Report, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), finds that coal demand will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 2.1% until 2019.
China is expected to account for three-fifths of that demand, while modest declines in coal consumption in the US and EU will be offset by growth in India's demand, according to the report.
15 December 2014: The 2014 Medium-Term Coal Market Report, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), finds that coal demand will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 2.1% until 2019. China is expected to account for three-fifths of that demand, while modest declines in coal consumption in the US and EU will be offset by growth in India’s demand, according to the report.
Reflecting on the climate change mitigation pledges made in the lead-up to and during the Lima Climate Change Conference, IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven explained that they will mostly fail to curb coal demand over the next five years. Overall, however, IEA projects that the recent slowing of the growth rate in demand will continue. IEA also notes uncertainties that may affect the actual outcomes over the outlook period. For instance, it remains to be seen how effective announced policy changes affecting coal in a number of countries will be in reality.
The report projects that: the US, with coal capacity retirement and shale gas competition, is expected to see a 1.7% annual average decline in coal demand; the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) region will experience a decline in coal consumption on the whole; Australia will claim the largest growth in exports; and Indonesia will consume more of its coal domestically.
IEA predicted an annual average growth rate through 2018 of 2.3% in the 2013 edition of the report. [IEA Press Release] [UN Press Release] [Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2014 Factsheet] [Publication: Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2014 Executive Summary]