6 September 2011: The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum has released a consensus report for the season of September to December 2011, which predicts a possible return to normal or above normal rain conditions in southern Somalia, but a risk of below normal rains for other areas, including northern Somalia.

While an important rainfall season in the Horn of Africa, September to December provides a relatively small proportion of total annual rainfalls, and thus, if these predictions are realized, it will not necessarily ease the current drought. The predictions of rainfall are based on La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and monsoon winds.

The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum was convened by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development of Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), with support from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The Outlook Forum issues regular Climate Watch Updates. The Forum met from 1-3 September 2011, in Entebbe, Uganda. The climate outlook is only relevant over seasons and across relatively large areas, and thus does not capture local or month-to-month variation. [WMO Press Release] [Publication: Statement from the Twenty Ninth Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 29)]