The fifth edition of the 'Global Wind Energy Outlook,' published by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) and Greenpeace, estimates that global wind power generation capacity could rise from 318 GW at the end of 2013 to as high as 800 GW in 2020 and nearly 2,000 GW by 2030, provided that governments show an unambiguous commitment to renewable energy and enact effective carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction policies.
According to the Outlook, wind power could thus supply up to 19% of global electricity demand by 2030.
21 October 2014: The fifth edition of the ‘Global Wind Energy Outlook,’ published by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) and Greenpeace, estimates that global wind power generation capacity could rise from 318 GW at the end of 2013 to as high as 800 GW in 2020 and nearly 2,000 GW by 2030, provided that governments show an unambiguous commitment to renewable energy and enact effective carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction policies. According to the Outlook, wind power could thus supply up to 19% of global electricity demand by 2030.
The ‘Global Wind Energy Outlook 2014′ (GWEO) projects the development of global wind power capacity through 2050 based on three scenarios: the International Energy Agency (IEA) ‘New Policies’ scenario; the GWEO ‘Moderate’ scenario; and the GWEO ‘Advanced’ scenario. These are measured against an IEA demand scenario and a more energy efficient projection, originally developed by Ecofys.
While sharing many characteristics of the IEA’s New Policies scenario, the GWEO Moderate scenario additionally assumes that all existing and planned renewable and wind energy targets are met, and an increased uptake post-2020 driven by falling costs and post-2020 climate policies. In the Moderate scenario, global wind power capacity reaches 712 GW in 2020 and 1,480 GW in 2030.
The GWEO Advanced scenario assumes an even more ambitious commitment by governments to wind energy deployment and presents GWEC’s view of a best-case scenario. Under this scenario, wind power could account for 25-30% of global electricity demand by 2050.
While currently wind power results in global annual CO2 emissions reductions of 372 million tons (Mt), the GWEO Advanced scenario estimates these could be over 3,000 Mt by 2030, equal to twice the IEA’s estimate for the same year. Regarding employment, under the two GWEO scenarios, wind industry employs 1.1-1.5 million people in 2020 and 1.5-2.2 million in 2030, significantly up from the current level of 600,000.
In all scenarios, China and the North American and European member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) together account for over two-thirds of global installed wind capacity in 2030. [GWEC Publication Webpage] [Publication: Global Wind Energy Outlook 2014]